
“Tactics flow from a superior position.” — Bobby Fischer
We can’t really know what reality is. The best we can do is to get to know our experience of it, and use other means to flesh out the full picture, remembering that “even the most truthful accounts of reality can never represent it in full.”1
But some accounts of reality are simply more truthful. These accounts come from experts, people who are much, much better at seeing what’s actually happening than the rest of us. They could be a technician scanning an x-ray, a coach studying a serving motion or a hunter staring down a growling bear.
With their expert evaluations, they can quickly and accurately notice important things about reality.
The Art of the Evaluation
Cops, who might take “thirty different assignments in one shift”,2 are expert evaluators. In his book 400 Things Cops Know, Adam Plantinga describes how he’d respond to a household that would alarm the rest of us. Looking around he’d think, “okay, the kids are dirty, but they seem unharmed. They’re likely neglected, not abused.” In other words, he might not like what he sees, but he doesn’t see a crime – the main thing he’s looking for.
Over time their evaluations become less “clunkily conscious”. Thinking less is a sign of a “true expert,”3 says Iain McGilchrist: “When you start out … you have to learn and memorize and think consciously about many, many things. But by the time you’re a skilful physician or surgeon, a skilful chess player or a skilful pilot, you don’t think like that, because that would make you a very second-rate performer.”
The observations experts make can seem obvious after the fact. Anything that’s true will feel obvious in some sense. In The Bridge on the River Kwai, an engineer is asked to give his honest opinion on the bridge under construction. He sums up the problem in a few words. “I wouldn’t build it here. The Japanese couldn’t have picked a worse location. There’s no bottom. You see those piles? They’re sinking. Our chaps could drive those logs till doomsday and they wouldn’t hold.”
In The Dog Whisperer, Cesar Millan points out signals that many troubled dogs show, such as heavy breathing (anxiety), a cool stare (aggression) or a raised paw (a warning). The owners might see these things too, but they simply don’t understand their significance. These aren’t special or unusual behaviours, but they are important.
A problem half-solved
Even though experts can see important things in an instant, it doesn’t mean they’re always right. It doesn’t mean a policeman can “peer into men’s souls and determine whether they are the guilty party”. Even the Dog Whisperer gets bitten. “I didn’t see that coming”, admits Cesar, after an aggressive labrador lunges at his hand.
Experts also face another, bigger problem: the rest of us. Their evaluations can lead to smart strategies and solutions, but someone has to execute. This is where the “real work” is.
- Military intelligence only matters if it’s backed up by guns and bombs.
- A tennis coach might know the secret to winning a Grand Slam, but will need to make sure his athlete sets his alarm on game day.
- An overexcited dog needs longer walks, but who’s going to do the walking?
Whether or not the expert sticks around to fix what they’ve found, at least the action is aimed in roughly the right direction. There’s lots of work to do, but it’s easier, and it won’t be wasted or going round in circles, because it flows from something true and important.
Also published on the Buddha Bike Substack
- Nexus: A Brief History of Information Networks from the Stone Age to AI – Yuval Noah Harari ↩︎
- 400 Things Cops Know: Street-Smart Lessons from a Veteran Patrolman – Adam Plantinga ↩︎
- The Wisdom Of Intuition – Iain McGilchrist (YouTube) ↩︎
